NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe is set to speak in Warsaw as concern grows over sabotage, drone incidents and possible changes to US troop levels in Europe.
A NATO warning to Russia is expected today, when US General Alexus Grynkewich, the alliance’s top military commander, addresses a security conference in Warsaw on how NATO would counter any attack. According to AFP, NATO officials said the general will set out his “theory of victory” as worries grow over the threat from Moscow.
What the NATO Warning to Russia Is Expected to Say
AFP reported that Grynkewich, who holds the post of Supreme Allied Commander Europe, will explain how the alliance would respond to a potential attack. His spokesman, Colonel Martin O’Donnell, said last week that the approach is to preserve NATO’s advantage, in line with its existing deterrence and defense plans, AFP reported. O’Donnell also said allies must prepare now to deter aggression and, if attacked, to win.
NATO has traditionally kept its plans for countering Russia closely guarded, according to AFP. The alliance maintains that it is defensive and has no intention of attacking Russia. The theory of victory is described as a framework, and its full details had not been published at the time of writing.
Why NATO Is Concerned About the Russian Threat
Western officials say Moscow is running a hybrid campaign of sabotage and interference against countries that support Ukraine, AFP reported. The version published by Arab News said officials believe these hybrid attacks have become more reckless as Russian forces remain stalled in Ukraine, with a risk of significant loss of life. It also listed the discovery of an explosive laden drone at a German airport among the recent incidents.
The AFP report added that NATO has struggled to find the right response to incidents in the grey zone beneath open conflict. NATO’s civilian head, Mark Rutte, has urged members to stay calm and keep backing Ukraine, AFP reported. He said last month that Europe should not be naive about Russia, but that Moscow knows the alliance is stronger.
Can NATO Counter a Limited Russian Attack?
Reuters reported on September 24 that the NATO commander said in a phone interview that the alliance is stepping up intelligence sharing after a wave of sabotage and other incidents apparently linked to Russia. He said NATO should remain calm and confident that it can handle any threat from Moscow.
Asked about a limited Russian attack on NATO territory, Grynkewich told Reuters it was “unlikely but something that we can’t rule out.” Reuters also reported that Denmark’s defence intelligence service sees a small but rising risk of such an attack on one or more NATO countries that border Russia.
Grynkewich described a string of recent incidents as concerning, Reuters reported. They included an attempted drone attack at Germany’s Leipzig/Halle Airport and a Russian ship firing flares toward a Danish military helicopter. Kyiv Post reported that Moscow portrayed the helicopter episode as a response to a Danish provocation.
US Forces and Europe’s Growing Role
The warning comes at a sensitive time for the alliance. According to AFP, allies are bracing for possible cuts to US forces in Europe while the Pentagon reviews its deployments on the continent, with results expected toward the end of the year.
Reuters reported that Grynkewich tried to reassure European allies by saying Washington would keep providing “critical but more limited capabilities” as Europeans take on a bigger role. The same Reuters report said a British army general was taking over from a US Navy vice admiral at a NATO command in Norfolk, Virginia, and that a European officer would lead NATO’s Joint Force Command in Naples.