The World Bank says Pakistan accounts for about 48% of people living on less than $3 a day across the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Pakistan bears biggest poverty burden in its region, the World Bank said on Tuesday, estimating that the country is home to about 48% of people living below the $3 a day poverty line across the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan. Dawn reported that the Bank released the finding in its regional Economic Outlook ahead of next week’s annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. The Bank tied the rise in poverty to repeated shocks and a long period of economic adjustment.
What the World Bank Poverty Report Says
The region is abbreviated as MENAAP. Nukta reported that the findings appear in the Bank’s October 2026 MENAAP Economic Update, titled From Divide to Opportunity: AI, Jobs, and Growth. According to Dawn, the Bank said MENAAP is the only region in the world where poverty remains above levels from before the pandemic and continues to rise.
“Pakistan accounts for nearly half of the region’s extreme poor,” the Bank said, as quoted by Dawn. Dawn also reported that Afghanistan, Syria and Yemen together account for another 47%. Business Recorder and Aaj News reported the same shares.
Dawn said 14.3% of the region’s people lived on less than $3 a day in 2024, against 10.4% worldwide. At the $4.20 line, the regional share was 26.9%, against 18.9% globally. The Express Tribune converted the $3 line to about Rs840 a day.
Why Pakistan Bears Biggest Poverty Burden in the Region
The Bank said the regional increase was driven mainly by Pakistan. The poverty rate there rose by 6.4 percentage points at the $3 line and by 3.2 points at the $4.20 line between the 2018 to 2019 and 2024 to 2025 fiscal years.
The Bank pointed to a series of shocks. These included the Covid pandemic, the 2022 floods, and a macroeconomic crisis marked by high inflation and a weaker currency. It also cited a prolonged period of adjustment that weakened real household incomes and employment.
The Express Tribune noted that adjustment under IMF programmes has drawn criticism. Critics say it improved fiscal and monetary figures while contributing to slow growth, high poverty and high unemployment.
World Bank Forecast for the Pakistan Economy
Dawn reported that the Bank estimates growth at 3.2% in the 2024 to 2025 fiscal year and 3.7% in 2025 to 2026. It projects 3.8% for the current fiscal year. The Bank puts the current account deficit at 0.1% of output in 2025 to 2026, rising to 0.8% this year. The fiscal deficit is estimated at 2.6%, rising to 3.5%.
The Express Tribune added that the Bank projects inflation of 8.2% this fiscal year.
Fuel Prices, Conflict and Food Security
The economic losses from the conflict involving the United States and Iran are concentrated in the region, though the final scale remains uncertain. If disruptions last through the end of 2026, the Bank projects the region will contract by 2.1% this year after growing 3.3% in 2025.
The Bank listed Pakistan among countries facing significant food insecurity, Dawn said. It also warned that a stronger than usual El Niño expected in late 2026 could add to food price pressure, with Pakistan exposed through changing monsoon conditions.
The Express Tribune reported that the Bank found petrol prices rose by 40% or more in Pakistan, and diesel by more than 40%. It added that Pakistan has introduced targeted fuel and farm assistance. The higher fuel costs have contributed to protests in some economies in the region, including Pakistan.
How Many People in Pakistan Live in Poverty?
The answer depends on the poverty line used. Arab News reported earlier that the Bank’s national estimate was 25.3% in the 2023 to 2024 fiscal year. At the global line of $4.20 a day, about 44.7% of Pakistanis fall below the threshold, the outlet said.
Bolormaa Amgaabazar, the Bank’s country director for Pakistan, said the two figures are not directly comparable because they rest on different benchmarks, Arab News reported.
-Tamrah News