UN agencies and the government warn that a strong El Nino could shrink harvests, leaving Zimbabwe farmers to decide when to plant in a rain dependent season.
Zimbabwe El Nino hunger fears are growing after UN agencies and the government warned of poor rains, and farmers have been told not to plant after the first showers. According to UN News, the World Food Programme says the 2026 to 2027 El Nino could push 49 million more people into acute hunger across 45 countries by the end of 2027. ICRISAT reported that Zimbabwe’s weather service puts the chance of below normal rainfall this season at 65 percent.
What the UN Says About El Nino Drought Risk
UN News reported that the World Food Programme studied 45 countries already short of food and expects the number of acutely hungry people there to rise from about 225 million to 274 million. Acting executive director Carl Skau called El Nino “a massive threat to the food security of millions”. The agency expects the peak between September and December 2026, with effects lasting through 2027. For Zimbabwe, UN News reported in 2024 that OCHA counted about 7.6 million people at risk of acute hunger after more than half the harvest was lost.
Why Zimbabwe Farmers Are Told to Wait
The Herald reported that the government warned crop growers against rushing to plant after scattered rains. An official said early showers are normal at the start of a season and that “planting is not advisable” yet. The paper said farmers should consider sowing only after a local area records more than 20 millimetres over three days. Down To Earth reported that the Meteorological Services Department sees an 88 to 94 percent chance of a super El Nino this rainy season, with below normal rainfall expected.
What Zimbabwe El Nino Hunger Warnings Mean for Farmers
ICRISAT said most Zimbabwe farmers rely on rain rather than irrigation, and that smallholders carry the greatest risk because a failed crop means hungry households and distress sales of livestock. Farm Future Africa reported that Agritex officers are urging short season seed varieties, and that official guidance also mentions planting with the first effective rains using potholing and mulching. Down To Earth said farmers will be encouraged to grow sorghum and millet.
Grain Deficit Puts Zimbabwe Food Security Under Pressure
Farmer’s Weekly reported that officials project a grain deficit of 266,881 to 541,881 tonnes for 2026/27, with production expected at 1.6 million tonnes against a reserve target of 600,000 tonnes. According to Reuters, Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube said on October 14 that the 2027 budget, due next month, will set aside $250 million in cash and $250 million for grain. Reuters said Zimbabwe needs about 2.2 million tons of maize a year and projects a maize harvest of 1.6 million tons. FEWS NET said crisis level food gaps are likely from October through at least January in parts of Matabeleland, Masvingo, Manicaland and Midlands.
Will the Zimbabwe Drought 2026 Become a National Disaster?
None of the reports reviewed by Tamrah News on October 18 mentioned a new disaster declaration. Reuters noted that Zimbabwe declared a national disaster during the 2024 El Nino drought. Down To Earth reported that Cabinet approved a six pillar drought plan on September 16, and Permanent Secretary Obert Jiri said on October 1 there was no need for panic. Farmer’s Weekly added that at least two million cattle are already at risk. A World Food Programme climate expert told allAfrica that in a Zimbabwe pilot, a district given early support saw food consumption fall 2 percent, against 35 percent in a neighboring district.
FAQs
What is behind Zimbabwe El Nino hunger fears in 2026?
Forecasts of a super El Nino and below normal rainfall, plus a projected grain deficit, are driving concern, and the World Food Programme has warned of wider acute hunger.
How many people face El Nino drought hunger in Zimbabwe?
A confirmed 2026 national figure was not found in the reports reviewed. OCHA reported 7.6 million at risk in 2024.
Should Zimbabwe farmers plant after the first rains?
The government says to wait until a local area records more than 20 millimeters over three days, the Herald reported.
What is the Zimbabwe drought 2026 grain deficit and maize harvest outlook?
Farmer’s Weekly reports a grain deficit of 266,881 to 541,881 tonnes. Reuters reports a projected maize harvest of 1.6 million tons.
How is Zimbabwe protecting food security from a super El Nino?
Cabinet approved a six pillar plan, and the government plans a $500 million cash and grain reserve to limit the effect of a smaller maize harvest.
